Departing Secretary of State Clinton's Legacy of Firsts

After 31 years of public service, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leaves the limelight behind.

On Friday, President Obama nominated Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., to take her place as secretary of state, leaving Clinton to help him move in and then bow out.

Over the past three decades, Clinton has served her country in one way or another, a tenure that was full of firsts.

She was the only first lady to refuse the traditional cookie bake off and the first secretary of state to visit more than 100 countries. She served under the first black president and was the first first lady to have an office in the West Wing of the White House. Clinton was the first secretary of state to visit East Timor, and the first first lady to later win elective office. And long before she ever appeared on a ballot, Clinton was the first child born to Hugh and Dorothy Rodham.

Hillary Clinton Through the Years

Her departure from the State Department does not come as a surprise. For the past year, she has made clear her intentions to step down and said her goodbyes at outposts all over the world.

"It's important for me to step off this incredibly high wire I've been on," Clinton said after casting her ballot in November's presidential election, "to take stock of the rest of my life."

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Recently, she told ABC's Barbara Walters she's looking forward to taking a step back, "maybe do some reading and writing and speaking and teaching."

In October, she took the blame for State Department security failures that led to the death of four Americans, including Ambassador Christopher Stevens, in Benghazi, Libya. It was a move that signaled a willingness to put politics aside and embrace responsibility.

I take responsibility," Clinton said a month after the attack in an interview in Lima, Peru. "I'm in charge of the State Department's 60,000-plus people all over the world, 275 posts.

"The president and the vice president wouldn't be knowledgeable about specific decisions that are made by security professionals," Clinton said, a clear attempt to absolve a president who was up for re-election of blame with little regard for her own popularity.

At the end of November, Clinton reflected on her accomplishments as secretary of state over the past four years in two wide-ranging speeches on foreign policy.

Her four years of work focused on advancing rights for women and religious minorities across the globe, helping to maintain the tenuous peace between Israelis and Palestinians, discouraging Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and, in her own words, "advancing a new approach to development that puts human dignity and self-sufficiency at the heart of our efforts."

Clinton reflected on her travels to more than 112 countries, calling it "shoe-leather diplomacy," and emphasizing the importance of being on the ground.

"I have found it highly ironic that, in today's world, when we can be anywhere virtually, more than ever people want us to show up, actually," she said at the Newseum in Washington, D.C. "Somebody said to me the other day, 'I look at your travel schedule.  Why Togo?  Why the Cook Islands?'  No secretary of state had ever been to Togo before.  Togo happens to be on the U.N. Security Council.  Going there, making the personal investment, has a real strategic purpose."

Though Clinton took political heat this year for her role in the Benghazi attack, her global colleagues joked and prodded her about a second presidential run at each increment of her long-term farewell. The popular Democrat continues to deny she'll run.

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Egyptians back new constitution in referendum

CAIRO (Reuters) - An Islamist-backed Egyptian constitution won approval in a referendum, rival camps said on Sunday, after a vote the opposition said would sow deep social divisions in the Arab world's most populous nation.

The Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, which propelled President Mohamed Mursi to power in a June election, said an unofficial tally showed 64 percent of voters backed the charter after two rounds of voting that ended with a final ballot on Saturday.

An opposition official also told Reuters their unofficial count showed the result was a "yes" vote, while party spokesmen said there had been a series of abuses during the voting.

The main opposition coalition, the National Salvation Front, responded to the defeat by saying it was moving towards forming a single political party to challenge the Islamists who have dominated the ballot box since strongman Hosni Mubarak was overthrown two years ago.

Members of the opposition, taking heart from a low turnout of about 30 percent of voters, pledged to keep up pressure on Mursi through peaceful protests and other democratic means.

"The referendum is not the end of the road," said Khaled Dawoud, a spokesman for the National Salvation Front. "It is only the beginning of a long struggle for Egypt's future."

The referendum committee may not declare official results for the two rounds until Monday, after hearing appeals. If the outcome is confirmed, a parliamentary election will follow in about two months.

Mursi's Islamist backers say the constitution is vital for the transition to democracy, nearly two years after Mubarak was ousted in a popular uprising. It will provide the stability needed to help a fragile economy, they say.

The constitution was "a historic opportunity to unite all national powers on the basis of mutual respect and honest dialogue for the sake of stabilizing the nation," the Brotherhood said in a statement.

RECIPE FOR UNREST

The opposition accuses Mursi of pushing through a text that favors Islamists and ignores the rights of Christians, who make up about 10 percent of the population, as well as women. They say it is a recipe for further unrest.

The opposition said voting in both rounds was marred by abuses. However, an official said the overall vote favored the charter.

"The majority is not big and the minority is not small," liberal politician Amr Hamzawy said, adding that the National Salvation Front would use "all peaceful, democratic means" such as protests to challenge the constitution.

The vote was split over two days as many judges had refused to supervise the ballot, making a single day of voting impossible.

During the build-up to the vote there were deadly protests, sparked by Mursi's decision to award himself extra powers in a November 22 decree and then to fast-track the constitutional vote.

The new basic law sets a limit of two four-year presidential terms. It says the principles of sharia, Islamic law, remain the main source of legislation but adds an article to explain this. It also says Islamic authorities will be consulted on sharia - a source of concern to Christians and others.

ABUSES

Rights groups reported what they said were illegalities in voting procedures. They said some polling stations opened late, that Islamists illegally campaigned at some polling places, and complained of irregularities in voter registration.

But the committee overseeing the two-stage vote said its investigations showed no major irregularities in voting on December 15, which covered about half of Egypt's 51 million voters. About 25 million were eligible to vote in the second round.

The Brotherhood said turnout was about a third of voters.

The opposition says the constitution will stir up more trouble on the streets since it has not received sufficiently broad backing for a document that should be agreed by consensus, and raised questions about the fairness of the vote.

In the first round, the district covering most of Cairo voted "no," which opponents said showed the depth of division.

"I see more unrest," said Ahmed Said, head of the liberal Free Egyptians Party and a member of the opposition Front.

He cited "serious violations" on the first day of voting, and said anger against Mursi was growing. "People are not going to accept the way they are dealing with the situation."

At least eight people were killed in protests outside the presidential palace in Cairo this month. Islamists and rivals clashed in Alexandria, the second-biggest city, on the eves of both voting days.

(Writing by Edmund Blair and Giles Elgood; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

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S'pore's top manpower issues in 2012

SINGAPORE: Foreign worker levies were raised in last year's Budget. All the changes would have been implemented next July.

Depending on the sector companies are in and how reliant they are on foreign workers, companies will pay between 250 and 750 dollars more in levies per worker.

To reduce dependency on foreign workers, companies are being urged to raise productivity.

In addition, they are encouraged to tap on older workers, back-to-work women, part timers and the disabled.

The Employment Act is also being reviewed in response to the needs of a changing workforce.

Phase one of the review is expected to be completed in 2013, and the second phase will likely commence in the last quarter of next year.

The labour movement wants the Act to be extended to cover the growing numbers of professionals, managers and executives (PMEs).

Some have urged the government to be more flexible and adjust foreign worker numbers according to business conditions.

Analysts warn there could be more companies that will shift elsewhere, downsize or even close down with the tightening measures.

Mech-Power is one of many local companies that has endured the labour crunch. It moved a large part of it operations to Johor to cope.

Cliff Loke, managing director of Mech-Power said: "Whenever we have an overload of work, we just put out a (recruitment) banner outside the factory and we get a lot of workers coming after us for the job. Also, the labour cost is much cheaper than in Singapore."

Acting Manpower Minister Tan Chuan-Jin indicated the pace of labour restructuring will also be a factor in tightening measures.

"We will work with companies to transit and we will look at the various measures in place and to see whether we will continue to tighten (foreign labour). So, a lot depends on demand," said Mr Tan.

"Will demand ease off? Will restructuring take place? So this is something we will continue to track and we will continue to effect these levers (in tightening labour) over time."

Policies are also being changed to improve the welfare and well-being of foreign workers.

Starting 1 January 2013, foreign domestic workers will get a mandatory day off.

Employment agencies said this can attract more foreign maids to work in Singapore.

"Singapore employers are very fearful of what the domestic workers are going to be doing on their (rest days). I think there's a fear factor they seem to have, but we need to trust the person who's working in our homes," said K Jayaprema, president of Association of Employment Agencies Singapore.

"What an employer can do is to guide these domestic workers. They can also look at skills upgrading. There're so many courses available for these domestic workers."

In November, 171 bus drivers from China went on strike. It was the first strike in 26 years in Singapore.

The drivers were unhappy about pay and living conditions.

The government considered the strike as an illegal one as public transport is an essential service and sufficient notice of the intent to go on strike is needed.

Observers believe Singapore's international reputation has not been dented.

"I think the long-term repercussion (of the strike) is quite minimum but should another episode happen, then I'm not very sure," said Assoc Prof Tan Khee Giap, co-director at Asia Competitiveness Institute.

To prevent such an episode from happening again, employers have been urged to review their grievance-handling procedures.

- CNA/xq

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YSR Congress undecided about Telangana

KADAPA: Former minister and YSR Congress leader Konda Surekha on Sunday said his party was yet to decide about the delegation to participate in the proposed all-party meeting on the Telangana and also the party's stand on the issue.

The party senior leadership will take a decision on the delegation and party stand on Telangana within a day or two, and nothing could be disclosed to reporters before the meeting, she said.

Talking to PTI at Rayachoty, after attending a marriage, she alleged Congress is the culprit for all confusion over the Telangana issue and it has been playing a "drama" to divert the people's attention.

When all political parties had already expressed their opinions on Telangana and the Sri Krishna Committee gave its recommendations long ago, "why does the Congress call an all party meeting again" she asked.

Answering her own question, she alleged, "the Congress wants to play a drama again to cheat the people".

She said in 2009, the central government did not invite the Loksatta Party, but the present home minister has done so, merely to put the YSR Congress, which is a political threat to the Congress, in an uncomfortable position.

She cited statements of YSR Congress president YS Jagan Mohan Reddy regarding Telangana and said that the party would honour Telangana people's sentiments.

However, when asked about her party's stand about sentiments of people in Rayalaseema and Andhra, who favour a united state, she observed silence.

She asked how the ruling Congress could ask other parties to give their opinion on Telangana, when the Congress itself had not disclosed its stand.

She said as an individual,"I am for separate Telangana".

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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'Cliff' Deniers Put Faith in No Deal

Not everyone thinks the "fiscal cliff" is so bad.

If the Dec. 31 deadline passes, income taxes will go up and across-the-board spending cuts will hit government programs. But while most of the political world frets as if a major disaster is looming, others have treated it more like the Y2K bug: a fiscal canard ginning up a lot of unnecessary panic.

The cliff is a "fantasy," former House speaker Newt Gingrich told a sold-out crowd at the Ronald Reagan library in Simi Valley, Calif., a week before Election Day.

"It is an excuse to panic," Gingrich said. "It is a device to get all of us running down the road so we accept whatever Obama wants, because otherwise we will have failed the fiscal cliff, and how can you be a patriot if you don't do what the fiscal cliff requires?"

Fiscal Cliff 'Plan B' Is Dead: Now What?

The former speaker wanted Republicans to stop negotiating with President Obama, for fear of giving too much away. "Back out of all of this negotiating with Obama," Gingrich publicly advised House Republicans. "The president is overwhelmingly dominant in the news media" but, at the opposite end of the political spectrum, liberals have said the same thing for a similar reason.

Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

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'Fiscal Cliff' Negotiations: Boehner's Plan B Watch Video

While the "cliff" would mean higher taxes on the middle class, it would also mean higher taxes on the wealthy, a chief demand for liberals. Automatic budget cuts would hit defense programs, which liberals have wanted to cut anyway, but not the Medicare and Social Security entitlements that Democrats and progressives want so badly to protect.

Boehner Pulls 'Plan B' Amid GOP Disarray

Van Jones, the environmental activist and resigned White House green jobs "czar," sought to quiet the "fiscal cliff" alarms Election Night on CNN. "The problem with the label 'the cliff' is that it creates a mindset that there is nothing worse that this set of cuts, and there are things that are worse," Jones said.

"We cannot be in a situation where we get bullied or stampeded into putting in a deal that's even worse than what the fiscal cliff is about."

Jones later wrote on his blog that the "fiscal cliff" is actually a "fiscal bluff": "The so-called fiscal cliff is actually a fiscal bluff --- a made-up crisis to make us think our government is out of money and time. Congress continues to drag its feet over raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans, despite the top 1% earning 23% of the nation's income, and insists on calling for cuts to vital programs instead of reining in massive subsidies ($100 billion in 2011 alone) to major corporations that already make billions in profits.

"America isn't broke --- it's being robbed.
Gingrich and Jones started the conversation, but as the deadline creeps closer, others are finishing it."

To some, the "fiscal cliff" offers a clearer upside.

"Democratic and progressive leverage goes immensely up if we get past the beginning of the year," Adam Green of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee told ABC News. "Once they have to proactively lower taxes on the rich, it makes it harder and harder to move that number up and makes it easier and easier to force votes or demand votes on policies that clearly benefit the middle class."

Green says liberals will get what they want immediately, if the Dec. 31 deadline passes without a deal.

"We really want to get past the first of the year so that we have that leverage in the bag," Green told ABC. "It will also show that the fiscal cliff was a mess. If we get into 2013, the really good stuff happens right away, and the really big cuts are a 10-year phasing."

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Egypt's constitution seen passing in referendum

CAIRO (Reuters) - Egyptians voted on a constitution drafted by Islamists on Saturday in a second round of balloting expected to approve a charter that opponents say will create deeper turmoil in the Arab world's most populous nation.

Islamist supporters of President Mohamed Mursi, who was elected in June, say the constitution is vital to moving Egypt towards democracy two years after Hosni Mubarak was overthrown in a popular uprising. It will help restore the stability needed to fix an economy that is on the ropes, they say.

But the opposition says the document is divisive and has accused Mursi of pushing through a text that favors his Islamist allies while ignoring the rights of Christians, who make up about 10 percent of the population, as well as women.

As polling opened on Saturday, a coalition of Egyptian rights groups reported a number of irregularities.

They said some polling stations had opened late, that Islamists urging a "yes" vote had illegally campaigned at some stations, and reported some voter registration irregularities, including the listing of one dead person.

The first round of voting last week resulted in a 57 percent vote in favor of the constitution, according to unofficial figures.

Analysts expect another "yes" on Saturday because the vote covers rural and other areas seen as having more Islamist sympathizers. Islamists may also be able to count on many Egyptians who are simply exhausted by two years of upheaval.

If the basic law is passed, a parliamentary election will be held in about two months.

After the first round of voting, the opposition said a litany of alleged abuses meant the first stage of the referendum should be re-run.

But the committee overseeing the two-stage vote said their investigations showed no major irregularities in voting on December 15, which covered about half of Egypt's 51 million voters.

There was no indication on Saturday that the alleged abuses were any worse than those claimed during the first round.

"I'm voting 'no' because Egypt can't be ruled by one faction," said Karim Nahas, 35, a stockbroker, heading to a polling station in Giza, a province included in this round of voting which covers parts of greater Cairo.

At another polling station, voters said they were more interested in ending Egypt's long period of political instability than in the Islamist aspects of the charter.

"We have to extend our hands to Mursi to help fix the country," said Hisham Kamal, an accountant.

Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. (0600 GMT) and close at 7 p.m. (1700 GMT) though voting could be extended as it was last week. Queues formed at some polling stations around the country.

Unofficial tallies are likely to emerge within hours of the close, but the referendum committee may not declare an official result for the two rounds until Monday, after hearing appeals.

MORE UNREST

Even if the charter is approved, the opposition say it is a recipe for trouble since it has not received broad consensus backing from the population. They say the result may go in Mursi's favor but it will not be the result of a fair vote.

"I see more unrest," said Ahmed Said, head of the liberal Free Egyptians Party and a member of the National Salvation Front, an opposition coalition formed after Mursi expanded his powers on November 22 and then pushed the constitution to a vote.

Citing what he said were "serious violations" on the first day of voting, he said anger against Mursi and his Islamist allies was growing: "People are not going to accept the way they are dealing with the situation."

At least eight people were killed in protests outside the presidential palace in Cairo this month. Islamists and rivals clashed on Friday in the second biggest city of Alexandria, hurling stones at each other. Two buses were torched.

The head of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist group that represents Mursi's power base, said the vote was an opportunity for Egypt to move on.

"After the constitution is settled by the people, the wheels in all areas will turn, even if there are differences here and there," the Brotherhood's supreme guide, Mohamed Badie, said as he went to vote in Beni Suef, an area south of Cairo.

"After choosing a constitution, all Egyptians will be moving in the same direction," he said.

The vote was staggered after many judges refused to supervise the ballot, meaning there were not enough to hold the referendum on a single day nationwide.

The first round was won by a slim enough margin to buttress opposition arguments that the text was divisive. Opponents who include liberals, leftists, Christians and more moderate-minded Muslims accuse Islamists of using religion to sway voters.

Islamists, who have won successive ballots since Mubarak's overthrow albeit by narrowing margins, dismiss charges that they are exploiting religion and say the document reflects the will of a majority in the country where most people are Muslim.

(Additional reporting by Tamim Elyan; Writing by Edmund Blair and Giles Elgood; Editing by Andrew Osborn)

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Rent in Orchard Rd prime areas down 0.28% in Q4

SINGAPORE: Prime area rent for shopping malls and retailers in Orchard Road inched down 0.28 per cent this quarter, compared to the previous quarter.

In a report by Savills World Research, average monthly rent in prime areas in Orchard Road were S$35.1 per square foot in the fourth quarter.

This is a slight drop from the S$35.2 per square foot in Q3.

Analysts felt that this is due to adjustments in the market, as rent in the area were growing too fast previously.

Alan Cheong, director of Savills Research said the fall could be due to over-expecting the level of tourism in Singapore.

He said: "While (tourism) did increase, apparently the spending power did not quite live up to its expectation. Rent and performance in the Orchard Road belt will be dependent on tourism trade and on the state of the economy."

More retail spaces will also be available soon.

Recently, Plaza Singapura completed its expansion works, providing 80 more shops.

A larger scale development, Orchard Gateway, will provide 180,000 square feet of retail space next year.

Analysts also say that a gloomy economic outlook ahead could also see rent fall by up to 3 per cent, and if economic growth slows, people will spend less.

Retailers may then take a hit, in turn exerting a downward pressure on rent.

- CNA/xq

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Cold wave grips north India

NEW DELHI: Cold wave conditions gripped north India as mercury dipped in most parts of the region on Saturday, with Kashmir Valley shivering under sub-zero temperature.

In Delhi, the minimum temperature settled two notches below normal at 6.2 degrees Celsius, Met office said, predicting a foggy morning for tomorrow.

In Jammu and Kashmir, temperature remained below freezing point in most parts of the state, with the mercury in capital Srinagar recording minus 3.4 degrees Celsius.

Kargil also witnessed a dip in the night temperature, which settled at minus 14.4 degrees Celsius.

Pahalgam, which serves as the base camp for the annual Amarnath yatra, was freezing at minus 8.0 degrees Celsius.

The famous ski resort of Gulmarg was the coldest place in the Valley yesterday with a minimum of minus 10.8 degrees Celsius, Met officials said.

In Punjab and Haryana, night temperatures continued to drop, with Narnaul in Haryana being the coldest place in the region at 3.5 degrees.

While Ludhiana with 5.8 degrees Celsius was coldest place in Punjab, Chandigarh recorded a night temperature of 6.9 degrees.

In Uttar Pradesh, biting cold, coupled with dense fog, threw life out of gear and claimed life of one person in Hamirpur district.

The mercury nose-dived by several notches to settle below normal in most places, with the Bareilly and Meerut divisions recording the sharpest decline.

While Najibabad remained the coldest place in the state with 3.4 degrees Celsius, temperature fell in other places of the state including capital Lucknow, Kanpur, Allahabad, Agra and Mathura districts.

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

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Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

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AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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